top of page
Writer's pictureMax Teh

Decision Tree for Stock Rebalancing: A Practical & Systematic Approach to Maximize Your Portfolio's Potential

Updated: 3 days ago

Disclaimer: This communication is provided for information purposes only and is not intended as a recommendation or a solicitation to buy, sell or hold any investment product. Readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions.

 

KEYPOINTS

  • Rebalancing ensures your portfolio stays diversified while optimizing returns and managing risk.

  • Use the decision tree to determine when to let your winners run and when to cut your losses short.

  • Evaluate valuation, fundamentals, and market conditions to make informed rebalancing decisions.


When managing a stock portfolio, knowing when to rebalance is crucial for long-term success.

While rebalancing ensures your portfolio remains diversified, it also allows you to optimize returns and manage risk. However, rebalancing isn’t a simple one-size-fits-all decision; there are many factors to consider before making adjustments.


Below, I’ll walk you through key insights that complement the decision tree image, designed to guide you in determining when to let your winners run and when to cut your losses short.


  • note: the GRID which is mentioned in the chart above is the Portfolio Allocation GRID.

  • and the reason why I set the benchmark to be at least USD200 because any rebalancing which is done under that amount will not make financial sense, since the stock may need to rise significantly just to cover the brokerage & commission costs.



Why Rebalancing Matters

Stock markets are inherently volatile, and as prices fluctuate, so does the composition of your portfolio. Without regular rebalancing, you may unintentionally increase your exposure to risk by holding too much of one stock or sector. On the flip side, you may also miss out on opportunities if you cut winning stocks too early.

Rebalancing is your tool to maintain control, ensuring that your portfolio reflects your desired risk tolerance and return objectives. It allows you to:

  • Protect gains from being wiped out by downturns in specific stocks.

  • Ensure underperforming stocks don’t drag down your overall portfolio performance.

  • Maintain an optimal level of diversification.


Key Considerations Beyond the Decision Tree

While the decision tree helps you map out the basic framework, let’s dive into the reasoning behind some of the key factors.


1. Valuation: Not Just a Number

Valuation is a critical component of the decision tree, but it's important to recognize that valuations can sometimes mislead, particularly in growth stocks. A stock with a high Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio, for example, might still be a strong performer if its future growth prospects are substantial.


Read more on:


Always balance valuation metrics with the company’s growth trajectory and industry position.

In contrast, value stocks might seem undervalued based on traditional metrics, but they could be "cheap for a reason." If the business fundamentals are declining, low valuation alone doesn’t justify holding onto the stock.


It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price. - Warren Buffett

2. Fundamentals: The Story Behind the Numbers