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Disclaimer: This communication is provided for information purposes only and is not intended as a recommendation or a solicitation to buy, sell or hold any investment product. Readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions.
In our journey to building a winning portfolio, let's explore the potential of young, public companies. While established giants have their merits, these newcomers can offer exciting opportunities for growth for your portfolio.
Why you might want to consider young companies:
High-growth potential: Young companies are often disrupting established industries with innovative ideas. This can translate to exponential revenue growth. Think of companies like Duolingo (language learning) or Airbnb (accommodation) that have revolutionized their respective fields in a short time.
Agile and adaptable: Being new often means being nimble and adaptable. These companies can quickly respond to market changes and seize new opportunities, unlike some established players burdened by legacy systems and processes.
It can be even more powerful when these young companies are led by Founder-CEOs
Downsides of Young Companies
However, it's important to remember:
Higher risk: New companies are inherently riskier as their business models are still evolving. They might not have a proven track record, and their long-term success is less certain compared to established players.
Limited financial data: Due to their short history, fewer financial data points are available for analysis, making it crucial to rely on qualitative factors like the company's vision, market potential, and team expertise.
Balanced approach is Key 🔑
While new companies can be excellent growth drivers, you should not neglect established players with strong fundamentals and long-term growth potential, like Apple or Microsoft.
Guideline:
Most desirable: < 10 years
Companies listed for under 10 years might offer a higher growth potential in the long-run, examples include: Duolingo (< 3 years), Airbnb (3 years), and Hubspot (<10 years).
Desirable: 10 to 20 years
Companies within 10 to 20 years of being public can still be attractive options, like Tesla (<14 years) and Fortinet (14 years). (notes):
as of today, majority of the holdings in my portfolio is invested in companies in this time range, but I will be open to allocating more weightage to companies under 10 years of timeframe when I find more promising ones in the future.
refer to this article to see CAGR of these popular companies even when investors invested in them 10 years post their IPOs.
Less Desirable: > 30 years
Companies listed for over 30 years can also be valuable additions, but ensure they demonstrate sustainable competitive advantages, strong leadership, and a clear path to future growth, like Microsoft (< 38 years) and Apple (43 years) (notes):
Downsides of Investing in giants with large revenue bases: Even if established players introduce groundbreaking products with high sales,
the impact on their overall top-line growth might be minimal due to their already massive revenue base, for example:
OpenAI's $2 billion revenue is minuscule compared to Microsoft's $227 billion.
Similarly, Apple's "Vision Pro" might not significantly impact their overall product revenue, as seen in this analysis.
On IPO investment
While exciting, I typically avoid buying companies at IPO due to limited financial data and often lofty valuations.
How to check the no. of years a company has been publicly listed for?
As Google may not reveal the full Stock Chart of Companies from the day they are publicly listed.
Case in point, Coca- Cola was listed in 1919 [1] but the stock chart on Google only showed data up to 1984.
You can search on AI chatbots like Microsoft Copilot,
set the Conversation Style = More Precise
and use a prompt like
how many years have Coca Cola been listed in the public market?The response it provides should give you a good starting point.
Conclusion
Remember, thorough research is crucial before investing in any company, regardless of its age. Look for companies with sustainable competitive advantages, strong leadership, and a clear path to future growth, irrespective of their time in the public market.
By incorporating both young and established companies, with a focus on the preferable timeframe, you can create a well-diversified portfolio with the potential for consistent growth and long-term success.
Footnotes
