Unpacking Tesla's February Sales Figures: CNY Impact and Long-Term EV Market Trends

KEYPOINTS:

🔑 This year's earlier Chinese New Year dampened sales across the industry, not just Tesla.

🔑 Long-term growth forecasts for the EV market remain strong for 2024 & beyond.

🔑 Tesla's ventures into FSD, AI, and Robotics offer exciting future growth potential beyond just car sales.

Disclaimer: This communication is provided for information purposes only and is not intended as a recommendation or a solicitation to buy, sell or hold any investment product. Readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions.

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On March 5th, Tesla’s stock experienced a tumble of up to 7% following the release of February sales figures in China, which showed a 19% decrease compared to the previous year's Feb sales figures.

Tesla's stocks fell as much as 15% in the past 5 trading days.

While this development stirred concerns among short-term investors, I believe that long-term enthusiasts have little to worry about. The panic sell-off is an overreaction, and here’s why:

1) The Chinese New Year Effect

• This year's Chinese New Year (CNY) fell on February 11th, compared to January 22nd in 2023. This timing shift significantly impacted car sales due to several factors:
  

Historically Automotive Sales will be lower during months when Lunar New Year take place. (Source: Marksline)

Year	CNY Dates
2021	12 Feb 2022
2022	1 Feb 2022
2023	22 Jan 2023
2024	10 Feb 2024

source: http://www.chinesenewyears.info/chinese-new-year-calendar.php

1. Festive Focus:  Consumers prioritize CNY celebrations with family and travel, leading to a natural dip in car purchases.

2. Business Closures:  Car dealerships and showrooms typically operate with limited hours or close entirely during CNY, further hindering sales opportunities.

3. Production Slowdowns: Factories, including car manufacturers, experience temporary shutdowns or reduced production around CNY due to worker holidays and travel.
   

2) Industry-Wide Trend

• Not Alone: Tesla wasn’t the only one facing a decline; Other China automakers experienced even more decrease in their Feb's sales in 2024 (when compared to 2023)

  • BYD’s sales figures fell by 37%

  • NIO’s sales figures fell by 33%

  • XPeng's sales figures fell by 24%
    

• source: https://cnevpost.com/2024/03/04/tesla-sells-60365-china-made-cars-feb-2024/
  

Tesla Model Y

3) The EV Market Trajectory

• Growth Ahead: Despite temporary setbacks, the Electric Vehicle (EV) market is projected to grow above 20% next year with at least about a 10% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in subsequent years.
  

• source: Detailed statistics are available at Bloomberg and Statista.
  

4) Diversification of Tesla's Business Segments

Tesla isn’t just about cars; it’s venturing into other lucrative segments where many competitors lag or have no presence.

• Innovation Leads: Full Self Driving (FSD), Artificial Intelligence (AI), Robotics are some areas where Tesla is making significant strides.
  

• Future Growth Runway: Success in these ventures promises an additional growth runway for Tesla, further solidifying its position in the market.

Conclusion

While the recent dip in Tesla’s stock price may cause concern for some, it’s important to view these events in the broader context. The factors contributing to the temporary decline are not unique to Tesla and do not reflect the company’s long-term potential.

With the EV market poised for significant growth and Tesla’s continuous innovation, there’s a bright horizon ahead for long-term investors.

The current market reaction is a short-term response, and those who keep their eyes on the future stand to reap the benefits.