Table of content
Disclaimer: This communication is provided for information purposes only and is not intended as a recommendation or a solicitation to buy, sell or hold any investment product. Readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions.
Objective:
Since the announcement of Apple's Vision Pro, I would like to estimate what are the expected sales it will bring for the company in the coming years.
As a start, it may be useful to look at past data to see how revolutionary products like iPod & iPhone did.
Notes:
Datasets are obtained from ChatGPT (cut-off is on Sept 2021), hence 2021 sales figs are incomplete.
Figures may not be completely accurate, but its useful for a start.
Figures are in USD.
Interesting observations
In merely 3 years after iPhone's release,
It took over Mac as top revenue generating product
It generated more sales than iPods would ever bring to the company.
iPod's highest sales figure was $9billion in 2007
iPod sales dropped every year after iPhone is released in 2007.
Clear sign that iPhone cannibalised iPod's sales.
Mac's sales however was still able to grow at 10%CAGR (from 2007 since iPhone launched, until 2021)
Mac's sales were not cannibalised by iPhones, rather it appears to be strengthened by it instead.
since users with both Macs & iPhones achieve better user experience in the Apple ecosystem.
iPhone sales CAGR were 68% for 14 yrs from 2007 till 2021.
Apple stock price inc by 27% CAGR for 14 yrs from 2008 until 2022.
Steve Jobs grew the companies' revenue enormously when he came back as CEO in 1997-2011,
and revenue growth fell 1 year after.
Takeaways & estimations
Based on some quick calculations done here, taking into consideration factors like total market size, and assumed adoption rates here are some estimations on how Vision Pro will affect Apple's sales.
(Note): these assumptions are purely speculative at this point and for information purposes only, figures will likely be refined again later with more real-life data.
Vision Pro will likely cannibalise into iPad's sales.
Macs sales on the other hand, are expected to maintain or possibly grow in the coming few years.
iPhones will likely maintain as the main revenue generator for the company for many years.
Its possible for Apple's MR product lines to sustain revenue growth of up to 60% for 10 years.
Conclusion: Apple's Vision Pro sales will unlikely help boost Apple's Revenue growth by much in the next few years.
Update: 2March2029
As of today, Apple's Total Revenue (TTM figures) is USD385.7 Billion. [1]
The Global Extended Reality Market Size is estimated to be USD54.6 Billion in 2024. [2]
Assuming if Apple is able to capture 20% of the market share (an improbably high figure. [3])
that will add USD10.9 Billion to Apple's Revenue,
translating to a mere 3% Revenue Growth (assuming all of other Apples' product revenue remain constant).
For Apple's Mixed Reality products to contribute a significant growth percentage to the company's Total Revenue:
The Mixed Reality Market size will need to grow at very high rate (and sustainably for an extended period of time.), and
Apple's line of Mixed Reality products must be attractive enough to customers to secure a high market share in the industry.
Footnotes:
[3] author's notes: due to mainly 2 reasons: i) Vision Pro is priced way above the average price of other VR headsets at USD3,500. ii) Various review sources suggest that Vision Pro is not a far superior product compared to other VR headsets
